According to @KobeissiLetter, the probability of a recession occurring in the United States this year has increased to 59%, as reported by @Kalshi. This significant rise in recession odds could influence trading strategies as investors may seek to hedge against potential economic downturns. Traders might consider reallocating assets towards more defensive sectors or exploring options in safe-haven assets in anticipation of increased market volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed has revised its Q1 2025 GDP estimate to -3.7%, marking a significant downward adjustment. After accounting for gold imports and exports, the GDP contraction is now estimated at -1.4%. This is a stark contrast to the previous estimate of +3.8% growth two months ago. Such dramatic revisions can have profound implications for trading strategies, especially in commodities and currency markets, as traders may need to reassess risk exposure based on potential economic downturns.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Atlanta Fed's gold-adjusted GDPNow estimate has drastically decreased from +3.9% to +0.2%. Despite adjustments for gold imports, which shift GDP forecasts from -1.8% to +0.2%, the underlying US GDP growth expectations have significantly declined. This indicates potential economic downturns that traders should be aware of when considering market positions.

According to @KobeissiLetter, unemployment expectations in the US have surpassed 2020 levels, reaching their highest since 2008. A 2024 poll revealed that 56% of Americans believe the US is in a recession, sparking debates on whether the US is heading towards an economic downturn.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling growing market concerns over a potential economic downturn.

According to Gordon (@AltcoinGordon), when there is a consensus that a recession has begun, it often indicates that the worst part of the downturn is already over. This perspective suggests that market sentiment could shift towards recovery once a recession is widely acknowledged.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil prices have plummeted to their lowest point since May 2023, driven by market concerns over an increased risk of recession and adjustments in OPEC+ supply. This significant drop reflects the market's reaction to potential economic downturns and changes in oil supply dynamics.